Bill Belichick's 4th and 2 decision: The Official Vertically Striped position

A little over a year ago, Mike Shanahan, then head coach of the Denver Broncos, made an all or nothing decision which required gaining two yards to either win or lose the game. It was the infamous Ed Hochuli game; The Broncos had just benefited from a horrible referring decision. Denver scored a touchdown on a four yard pass from Jay Cutler to Eddie Royal with twenty-four seconds remaining in the fourth quarter to make the score 38-37 pending the extra point. At this point, Shanahan made a gutsy decision, he kept the offense on the field to go for two to win the game rather than kick the extra point to tie the game up and send it to overtime. The try was successful, as Cutler once again found Royal in the South end-zone of Invesco Field, and the crowd erupted with approval. After the game, Shanahan was universally praised for his gutsiness and unconventional thinking. His defense had been run over, and rather than trust his fate to the coin flip, he decided to put the matter into the hands of his offense. The gamble worked, and Shanny was a genius, or so said the punditry across the sporting universe.

From the ESPN.com recap game page:

Showing ultimate confidence in his offense and maybe an equal dollop of distrust in his defense, Mike Shanahan went for the 2-point conversion with 29 seconds left and Jay Cutler hit rookie Eddie Royal over the middle to give the Denver Broncos a 39-38 win over San Diego on Sunday.

"Sometimes you have to go with your gut," Shanahan said. "I just felt like it was a chance for us to put them away. I didn't want to count on the coin flip. I wanted to do it then, and obviously it worked out."

From a Denver Post article by Mike Klis:

What's a bigger gamble — asking the offense to convert for one play from 2 yards out, or risk asking the defense to stop the Chargers? "At some point you need to ask, what are the percentages?" said Chargers coach Norv Turner. "He made the right call."

Okay, not everyone agreed with it. From Bernie Lincicome of the defunct Rocky Mountain News (Although I consider a Bernie Lincicome objection to be further verification of the correctness of the call):

The Broncos won a football game, one rare and remarkable, and, yes, there was a football game there under all the pinwheels and the panting, even when the Broncos coach made absolutely the wrong choice when it mattered most. And got away with it.

Anyhow, a year ago Shanahan and the Broncos gambled and won, and the community of football generally agreed with the decision because it worked. Also, the media were so busy wringing their hands over the absolutely atrocious Hochuli call of a non-fumble on what was clearly a Jay Cutler fumble which was recovered by San Diego that they only gave half of the attention of that game to the actual winning decision and focused just as much if not more on the one horrendous officiating call. My point is, that from my recollection of that day and it’s aftermath, and verified by my reading up on the archives of what was said that day…people agreed with the call because they had access to the results and the results were positive.

Now, flash forward to a year or so later when Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots decided to gamble on a 4^th and 2 at their own 28 yard line with 2:08 remaining in the game. It’s not completely analogous, but it is close enough to make my point. The Patriots were up by 6, and a successful conversion all but ices the game, however, a failed conversion does not mean that a loss is certain; it just makes it much more probable. So actually, Shanahan took the bigger risk last year and was praised for it because it worked. If Shanahan’s gambit didn’t work, the game was definitely over for the Broncos. The Pats still would have a chance even if they failed.

This week, Belichick is getting crucified because he failed on a play that actually was less risky. Yes, giving Peyton Manning the ball at the 28 with two minutes to go is tough, but it’s not impossible that the defense can keep the Colts out of the end zone. I keep hearing how Belichick was showing how he didn’t believe in his defense, but couldn’t he sell his decision by saying that he was showing faith in both his offense AND defense by going for the jugular? Belichick could say that he believed that his defense could bail him out if the offense failed. Sure, that’s more than a little bit of spin, but logically it makes sense, and Belichick could surely sell that to his players and possibly the media, right?

My initial reaction watching the game was that I thought Belichick was an idiot, but the more I thought about it, the more sense it made. Convert and victory is certain (and to be fair, after watching the replay it sure looked like the spot was an absolute dreadful piece of officiating), however if you fail even then not all hope is gone that you can win the game. Plus, the conventional “safe” play involved punting the ball to Peyton Manning. If Patriots punter Chris Hanson hits his average punt, which is 39.6 yards, you’re somewhere around the 32 or 33 yard line with Manning needing to go sixty-seven yards to win with two minutes to play with and two timeouts. Sure, that’s a good deal harder than going 28 yards, but either way, it’s far from unlikely that Peyton doesn’t do it. So rather than just giving Manning the ball, Bill tried to take all the suspense out the outcome by taking a reasonable chance at trying to get 2 yards with Tom Brady for the win rather than leaving it up to a defense that had already surrendered two fourth quarter touchdowns.

Yes, it was a risk, and I understand the side which says that they would punt, however, I think punting would have been just as large of a risk without the potential to decide the game in your favor. To hear pundits denigrating Belichick saying he is a complete moron and made an absolutely brain-dead decision because of his hubris seems disingenuous as many of these same folks praised Shanahan a year ago for making a similar decision with even more stark consequences for failure. At worst, when you factor in the positives for a successful conversion versus the negatives for a failure, Belichick’s decision was a coin flip where it was equally risky either way. Punting is what traditionalists do without thinking or without factoring in probabilities. I think Bill made an informed decision and decided to be risky because he felt it gave his team the best mathematical chance to win the game. I’m not going to kill him for that, even if I probably would have punted myself. In fact, I salute him as a visionary who rejects conventional thinking. If you’re only doing something because “That’s the way we’ve always done it” and you aren’t factoring in anything else other than tradition, you’re not thinking.

Sure, anyone with access to the results afterwards can make a more informed decision because hindsight is always 20-20, but in the moment, I don’t think that was a bad call. It only had a bad result, and everyone loves to judge decisions retroactively based on results. The Patriots didn’t have access to the results, and made a decent decision based on probability. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to take a shower. All this defending Bill Belichick and the hated Patriots is making me feel dirty!

Powerlines: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings

My buddy is borrowing my computer, so all my photos of strangers on the train are with him, so this week enjoy pictures someone else took of strangers sleeping on busses. Ain't public transportation great?

The Broncos and Giants are crashing to earth, the Bengals and Panthers are rising, and teams like the Bills, Browns and many many others are setting new records for ineptitude. From top to bottom, here is this weeks attempt to make sense of it all.

1. Saints – Having the Rams take you to the final play is no way to stay on top of the football world. The Saints stay at number 1 because, let’s face it, you’re not going to blow everyone out every week. However, their hold on the top stop is tenuous at best right now. They’re still very good, but their lead on the field has narrowed considerably. They are ripe for a loss, and really, that might not be a terrible thing for them to experience at this point.

2. Colts – Yes, technically, the Colts won the game over the Patriots. They are also still undefeated, however, with the way they have struggled in the past three games, barely defeating the 49ers and Texans, and winning a game against the Patriots that they really had no business getting, the Colts are also hanging on to the top of the rankings by a thread. There is no such thing as a moral victory in the NFL, but the Patriots will not be short of confidence going into Indy for the playoffs should that situation arise. The Colts got the breaks against the Patriots this time, but they were outplayed in the game. Period.

3. Patriots – Bill Belichick has been getting skewered in the media for his decision to go for a 4th and 2 with a six point lead and 2:08 to play in the game. The more I think about it, though, the more I think he made the right call. In a results oriented world, people will rip him saying it was a terrible gamble, but really…giving Peyton Manning the ball with two minutes left isn’t a recipe for victory. If that play gets called correctly by the refs (I hate the Pats, but the Colts were very lucky that wasn’t called a first down, it should have been), the Pats win. If they get that first down, the game is over. The odds that you pick up two yards with your world class offense are higher than the idea that your middling defense will be able to stop Peyton Manning and his two minute offense. It wasn’t a horrendous gamble, it was the right move. I will now stop defending and saying nice things about the hoodie, as this pro-Belichick paragraph has given me a rash.

4. Vikings – Beating down the Lions was a foregone conclusion. Thankfully it was done in non-dramatic style so that we didn’t have to hear everyone go on and on about how amazing Brett Favre is. The Vikings remain a good team who should contend for the trophy this year.

5. Bengals – Your team is riding high after just sweeping both of your biggest division rivals, the chemistry is the best it's been in years if not decades, and everything seems to be running smoothly. Any time you have this scenario in place, you absolutely HAVE to bring in an over the hill malcontent running back with a history of griping and alienating fans, coaches and teammates, not to mention a criminal history of battering women. You HAVE to make that move. What in God's name are the Bengals doing to themselves? Common sense to Marv Lewis: ABORT MISSION LARRY JOHNSON. ABORT. ABORT! I want to praise Cincinnati for their amazing run and improbable position atop the AFC North, and yet all I can think of is how they are potentially poisoning the well bringing in this joker from KC who everyone who has worked with in the past has nothing but bad things to say about. I guess there has been a dearth of arrests in Cincinnati of late, so they needed to bring in a designated malcontent? This makes absolutely no sense to me.

6. Steelers – The loss to the Bengals hurts their chances tremendously to win the division, as they are now essentially two games back of Cincy. However, I think that in the end it may actually serve them okay, as the Steelers tend to do their best work when they are lying in the weeds as a forgotten afterthought. If you look back to earlier this decade, they won their 2005 Super Bowl as a 6 seed whom no one was taking seriously, and they lost in the playoffs when they were 15-1. It almost feels like the defending champs have things right where they want them. Don’t sleep on the Steelers.

7. Chargers - The Chargers have looked as impressive over the past month as the Broncos have looked pathetic. The past two weeks they have completely run over some good teams in Philly and the Giants, and they have their confidence back. When the Chargers play with swagger, they’re tough to beat. I keep waiting for the Norv effect to kick in and for them to start playing down to the level of their coaching, but thus far, they once again look like the overwhelming favorite to win the AFC West.

8. Cardinals – Don’t look now, but the defending NFC Champions are looking pretty solid right now. Apart from getting bombed by the Colts this year and the inexplicable home loss to the Panthers, the Cards have had a pretty impressive season even if it has been mostly under the radar. They pretty much already have the NFC West wrapped up, plus they have a pretty simple schedule remaining with two games against the Rams, a game with the 49ers, a game with the Lions, and one with the Titans. They seem like they are already locked in to the 3 seed in the NFC, they aren’t going to get a bye unless either the Vikings or Saints fall apart, but I think that they are better than people realize.

9. Ravens – This is a solid team with a very tough road to hoe if they want to make the postseason. Their remaining schedule includes two dates with Pittsburgh, the Bears, the Packers, and the Colts. They do have a few breathers with games against the Raiders and Lions, but for the most part, they are going to have to really overachieve in the second half to make the tournament.

10. Cowboys – Was the beat down at the hands of the Packers in Lambeau on Sunday and aberration or are the Boys about to begin their annual late season collapse? Tony Romo needs a good December to prove to the critics that he is not fated to always fall apart down the stretch.

11. Eagles – Does Andy Reid not understand how football scoring works? Just over five minutes to go in the third quarter, his team is trailing 21-6 and he faces 4th and 1 on the Chargers 7 yard line. Rather that trying to go for it to bring his team within one score. He sends on the kicking team for a field goal which reduces his deficit from 15 points to 12 points. So now he still needs two touchdowns to win…Huh? Then, they finally score their first touchdown in the fourth quarter to make the score 28-15 pending the point after. Rather than going for two which would put them within a Field Goal plus a Touchdown with a 2 point conversion away from tying it, he kicks a PAT so the lead is 12 again. The difference between trailing by 12 and trailing by 13 is meaningless. GO FOR TWO, ANDY!!! Andy Reid is just a big dumb animal, I guess.

12. Texans – Not sure if they’ll be able to make the playoffs, but the Texans have an excellent shot at their first ever winning season. If they’re special, they could even snag a wild card berth.

13. Giants – Two desperate teams face off trying to right their respective ships this Sunday. The Giants have honked away four straight, and are trying to avoid having their postseason dreams drift away against the Falcons.

14. Falcons – The Falcons enter the Meadowlands on a skid which has seen them lose three of four themselves, a win over the Giants and they are back on track, and loss, and they fall back to good sized pack of teams hovering around .500.

15. Dolphins – Miami saved their season on Sunday. This is a very good team with a losing record, yet had they not gotten their act together to get a last second field goal against a dreadful Buccaneers team, they would be hopeless. Their chances are not great as it is with a 4-5 record, but at 3-6 they would have been done.

16. Packers – I wrote the Pack off as hopeless and helpless a week ago, so what do they do? Dominate a Cowboys team that had been surging up until Sunday and almost shut them out. I still don’t think Green Bay is very good, but they at least have a pulse again after winning the Ice Bowl rematch.

17. Broncos - Sound the alert, the Broncos are at red alert. The season is on the brink of falling apart. Losing to the Redskins was embarrassing and disheartening; I thought the Broncos were much better than they apparently are. At 6-3 all is definitely not lost, but if they are to pull the season out of this tailspin they absolutely must win this Sunday when the Chargers come to town. The Broncos haven’t looked good since the last time they faced San Diego back on the evening of October 19th. Right now taking down the Bolts looks unlikely at best, the Broncos are looking square in the face of flushing away a three game lead over the Chargers and losing what looked like a sure division title for the second straight season. I’m skeptical of the Broncos, but I feel they have hope if Kyle Orton can give it a go. If it’s Chris Simms, forget about it. He played at a JaMarcus Russell caliber level…and that’s definitely not a compliment.

18. Panthers – I spoke with Trace Smith on Vertically Striped Radio last week about Carolina, and he felt like the playoffs were a pipe dream for the Panthers. I don’t share his doubt, I think that the Cats are pretty good. Winning on Thursday night against an equally desperate Dolphins team will be tough, but if they can get that one, they’re at the very least back in the hunt.

19. Bears – Chi town can’t possibly still be feeling good about the Jay Cutler era, as the Bears are in the midst of a five game stretch where the only game they have won was against the sisters of the poor of Cleveland. After giving up five interceptions and leading his team to only six points against the Niners, I think the Bears are as over as the Macarena. At 4-5 right now with two games against the Vikes, one against the Packers, a matchup with the Ravens, and one with the Eagles, I think that the Bears finish well on the south side of .500 on the year. This Broncos fan is not shedding any tears for Jay.

20. Titans – The Titans continue to ride their Brett Kern fueled surge! They aren’t making the playoffs, because teams that lose their first six games don’t make the playoffs, but they have returned to the ranks of the frisky with their third straight win. If the Broncos were smart, they’d be working out a trade to get back their undefeated punter. God, I miss Brett Kern. Speaking of the Titans, how goofy is it for an 86 year old man to start tossing out middle fingers to the crowd? Bud Adams lost his mind and decided to flip the whole city of Buffalo the bird. I really want to hear what was done to provoke this old man to go crazy like that. I don’t condone it, but it’s so odd that I kind of respect it. Hopefully he got his money’s worth, as the little show cost Bud 250 thousand dollars, which is a pretty expensive price tag for a little bit of catharsis.

21. Jaguars – You are what your record says you are…so the Jags are a winning team. However, I’m still not buying it. Just as Carolina and Miami are probably better than their records indicate, I refuse to believe that this is a good team, even if technically they are 5-4. They’ve won against the Titans, Rams, Jets, Texans, and Chiefs. That’s hardly a super impressive resume...plus they were SHUTOUT by the Seahawks. This is not a good team, they just aren’t.

22. Jets – Done. The Jets are done. A rookie QB with a 4-5 record and a final two games against Indianapolis and the Bengals, add all of those things together, and the undeniable conclusion is that under no circumstances are the Jets making the postseason.

23. 49ers – Winning against the Bears was surely fun for Mike Singletary, plus getting off a four game losing streak had to be refreshing, but the Niners are too far back of the Cardinals, and they simply aren’t going to get a wildcard berth. This is a fun and competitive team, but they are at least a year away still. Maybe more, as their starting quarterback remains Alex Smith.

24. Redskins – The most depressing thing for this Broncos fan about losing to the Redskins is that Washington didn’t even look good in their win. Jason Campbell looks like a quarterback with some talent who has been jerked around and had his football mind turned to mush by too many mediocre coaches instructing him so that he doesn’t know what is expected of him on the field now. He threw for exactly as many yards in the full game as Kyle Orton did in the first half. All the Redskins drives were powered by a running game that the Broncos were powerless to stop which was led up by career backup Ladell Betts. It’s not that the Skins looked good, it’s just the Broncos looked atrocious.

25. Seahawks – The Hawks have somewhere between two and four wins remaining on their schedule, so if everything breaks perfectly for them and they play great, they can finish with a 7-9 record. Keep in mind, that is only if everything goes perfectly.

26. Bills – Apparently getting flipped off by Bud Adams was the last straw for Bills owner Ralph Wilson. Head Coach Dick Jauron was shown the door Tuesday, and when you look at the disaster that is the Bills season to this point, it is understandable. Since week 3 of the NFL season, here are the week by week score totals for the Bills: 7, 10, 3, 16, 20, and 10. I don’t know much, but I do know that if you average only 11 points a game, you won’t win many football games, and you know what? They haven’t. The Bills are lucky to be 3-6 right now, and Dick Jauron is lucky that he lasted as long as he did. Not sure putting Vince Lombardi in as an interim coach would make a difference for this group, but Jauron is gone and the rebuilding continues in Buffalo.

27. Buccaneers – Josh Freeman is showing some remarkable glimpses along with some absolutely horrendous mistakes…in short, exactly what you’d expect from a rook making his first few starts. However, he has brought a little bit of excitement to Buccaneer football, which is more than can be said for anyone else down in central Florida.

28. Chiefs – This Broncos fan just got a little bit more depressed, as I looked at their schedule and remembered that even the Chiefs were able to go in to Washington and win. THE CHIEFS! This team is so horrible that last week they were underdogs to Oakland!

29. Raiders – This is why the Raiders are the Raiders: They used the seventh overall draft pick this year to select Darrius Heyward-Bey, a wide receiver who to this point has six catches for 96 yards and no touchdowns. Although Darrius Heyward-Bey did manage to drop two passes this weekend against the Chiefs, the second drop which was more of a bobble then a tip up into the air which resulted in a game ending interception. If anyone in the NFL needs a hug right now, it’s Darrius. Never forget, when it comes to scouting, Al Davis knows “things” that no one else in football knows. And apparently what those “things” are include items such as how to completely waste draft picks on non-talented guys with high draft picks.

30. Rams – Progress is measured in St. Louis by the fact that the Rams are losing games by less these days! They only lost by 5 this week! Way to go, Rammies!

31. Lions – Despite the fact that they are only moderately better than last years version of the Lions which lost every game they played, this Sunday against the Browns will mark the second game in November in which Detroit will have been favored. No, seriously! That fact speaks to how many completely crap teams there are in the NFL right now.

32. Browns – I was watching the Monday Night Football game this week in Cleveland and feeling very sorry for the folks at the game. They are unfortunate enough to have endured the first decade of the “new” Browns. Their winning percentage since coming back is lower than one win for every three games. These fans are beaten down, they were almost happy to have the game scoreless at halftime, because it meant they weren’t losing yet. The Ravens scored sixteen points in the blink of an eye during the third, and they knew it was over as the Browns have only scored more than 16 points twice all season.

GI Joe: Keeping the World Safe from Squirrels!

Not much going on today. It was a boring Monday Night Football game, I'm still recovering from seeing the Broncos fold like a beach chair against the lousy Redskins, it was a cold Monday here in Denver, but at the very least I can rest easy knowing that the Joes are out there keeping the world safe from mutant squirrels...so I got that going for me. Which is nice. Power rankings should be up tomorrow. Rest easy my friends!

Broncos Gameday Recap: Game #9 - at Redskins

Redskin uprising in DC, Broncos fall for the third straight time.

Sound the alert! It's officially time to panic. The Broncos just lost to the hapless and hopeless Redskins. Perhaps that 6-0 start was a mirage. The way they've looked in the past three games is more of what I expected for the entire season. I got my hopes up after the hot start, but I'm less optimistic now. They've still overachieved this year, as I was expecting 4-12, but I started thinking playoffs, but now that seems to be quickly slipping away. The game against the Chargers next week now looms gigantic, the Broncos MUST win if they want to keep their hopes alive.

The game today started out well. The Broncos connected on two ridiculously long touchdown passes from Orton to Marshall, and they almost hit on another one to Eddie Royal. The Redskins looked confused and pathetic in the defensive secondary in the first half, and it appeared the Broncos would take care of business fairly easily. However, they allowed the Redskins to hang around, allowing one great drive and one embarrassing touchdown pass from a punter on a fake field goal attempt.

Chris Simms was pretty pathetic, as evidenced by his 7.5 Passer rating.

Right at the end of the half, Kyle Orton scrambled inside the red zone and twisted up his legs getting tackled. He hurt his left ankle, and was out for the second half. That was not good. The Broncos led 17-14 at the half, but Chris Simms was useless in the second half. Completely useless. The Redskins got their running game rolling, and the offense couldn't keep the Broncos defense on the sidelines for very long. The defensive line just wore down, and when they got to the point where they really needed a stop, they couldn't get one. All in all the 27-17 loss was the hardest loss to take of the season so far, as the Redskins are a dreadful team...they lost to the Lions for heavens sake. Welcome back to earth Broncos fans.

Positives from the game:

Kyle had a great first half, but then sadly had to go due to an ankle injury.

Kyle Orton: Kyle looked much better than he had in the past two games. He was efficiently moving the ball down the field, but sadly he was only able to play the first half, as the ankle injury kept him out of action down the stretch.

The Redskins were burned twice in the first quarter by Brandon Marshall going deep.

Brandon Marshall: Number Fifteen was stretching the field, and getting wide open deep. He finished with five catches for 134 yards and two touchdowns. Granted, much of that yardage was due to defensive error, but still...that's a good day.

Knowshon Moreno: Knowshon had a very solid day, finishing three yards shy of a hundred yard game. However, in the second half, when it became obvious that the Broncos were going to keep it very conservative offensively, the Redskins started focusing on the run.

Negatives from the game:

Ladell Betts rumbles in for the go ahead touchdown against the Broncos.

The run defense: 174 yards for the Redskins on the ground. Jason Campbell threw for as many yards the whole game as Kyle Orton did in the first half, but the passing game was just a small part of the offense for the Skins; Washinton won this game on the ground. (As an aside, Jason Campbell is a terrible quarterback. His accuracy is suspect to say the least, and he doesn't do touch passes very well at all. He has a strong arm, and he throws it hard all the time, several passes bounced off the arms of their intended receivers when if he took a little off of it, he might have better results.)

Mike Sellers falls into the end zone for a touchdown on a successful fake field goal attempt.

Special teams: Even when the Broncos were winning, the special teams were a weakness. Today, they were abysmal. Mitch Berger's punting was a little better, and the coverage teams were okay, but the worst play of the game happened on a fake field goal for the Redskins. They came out in kick formation and then shifted out of it to show a fake, Washington didn't like something they saw, so they called timeout. After the timeout, they did the exact same thing, and even though the Skins had shown they might do something tricky, the Broncos were not prepared for it. Hunter Smith, the Redskins punter, tossed a high arcing rainbow of a pass to fullback Mike Sellers who rumbled in from 35 yards out to tie the game at 14 in the second quarter. Embarrassing.

Good plan: Do the opposite of whatever Woody Paige says.

Chris Simms: Woody Paige wrote a column this week saying that Chris Simms should get the start in Washington. Due to Orton's injury, Paige sorta got his wish, as Simms started the second half and we got another reminder of why Woody Paige is an idiot.

Deangelo Hall reels in a terribly thrown ball from Chris Simms for an interception.

Simms looked dreadful, is there a word worse than dreadful? Craptastic? Inept? I consulted Thesaurus.com, and the best words I could find were: Distressing, Grievous, Horrific, Shuddersome, and Appalling. Needless to say, when I have to consult a thesaurus for your performance, that's probably a sign you didn't have a great day. His numbers? 3 for 13 for thirteen yards and one interception. His passer rating? Seven point five! He couldn't even get to double figures for his rating. That's dreadful...or any of the other words the thesaurus found. I'm not feeling good about having Chris Simms behind center, hopefully Orton's ankle is okay.

Final Thought:

I was concerned when the Broncos lost back to back games to the Ravens and Steelers, but I consoled myself by knowing that there is no shame in losing to either of those teams. Those are good teams, and you're not going to win them all. However, losing to the Redskins severely shakes my faith in this Broncos team. This was a game the Broncos really needed, and Denver's confidence has to be at a season low right now. They need to recapture some of that early season magic and quick, or what started as a special season will continue to crumble and they'll lose an amazing opportunity that their start afforded them.

Vertically Striped Radio - Episode 25: Trace Smith of the Southeast Sports Beat, Bad Bengals hair, and the Security Guy Irv Conspiracy

Trace Smith of the Southeast Sports Beat dropped by Vertically Striped Radio to drop some knowledge about the North Carolina sports scene and to give a little advice about how I should have the Sports Guy sign my Book of Basketball this week at his Denver book signing. He was a delight and even hung around to be a contestant in the first ever edition of "Best of 13" against Face Ventura. The topic for "Best of 13" was "D-League team or Minor league hockey team?" Face hung in nobly, but Trace had too much knowledge of the NBA D-League to be denied.

Jerry Fairish called in to formally announce that he is not Security Guy Irv, although Major Minority produced some compelling audio evidence. I believe Jerry, as though Jerry does seem like a nice guy, I'm not sure he's as "nice" as he'd have to be to truly play SGI. In true conspiracy segment style, we'll leave it up to you to decide.

The Vertically Striped Music Recommendation this week was "Cease to Begin" by Band of Horses. As always, you can listen in on the widget below or download the podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/verticallystripedradio; You can even subscribe on iTunes if you like...just search for Vertically Striped Radio, we're right there!

Here is the hairstyle that got 8th grader Dustin Reader suspended from school. I know it's tough being a Bengals fan, and to be fair that hair looks hideous; but this kid doesn't deserve to be suspended over this. School administrators need to chill out, the Bengals are good...he may never live long enough to enjoy it ever again! All we are saying is give Meep a chance!


Here is a news local news story featuring Dustin's plight! I love how his father treats this as a free speech issue, and is drawing a line in the sand that his boy is not going to get his hair changed. I love a man that fights for his principles.

Broncos versus Steelers: The rivalry starts young!

Our Steeler fan friends who live in Kansas were in town with their little guy on Monday night to attend the Broncos-Steelers game. They enjoyed it more than I did, but I thought this picture was too cute to keep to myself. Luke and Gavin were having fun, Luke doesn't seem to be bothered by the 28-10 beatdown the Steelers put on the Broncos anywhere near as badly as his old man was.

NFL Weekend Preview: Week 10

Is Colts-Pats the most entertaining rivalry in the NFL? It's hard to argue that it isn't.

It feels way too early for Thursday football to be starting already, but the Bears and 49ers will kick it off tonight, so here are the picks for the weekend upcoming.


Chicago at San Francisco – Thursday football starts this week in Frisco. You can call this game the Desperation Bowl. The Niners once promising season has dissolved into a four game slide of almost wins. Almost wins still are bad in the standings, even if they are easier for the fan base to take than Rams style blowout losses. Since they play in the NFC West, hope is not gone for San Francisco, but they must win this home game to have a shot. The Bears keep seeing the Vikings jump further and further ahead in the North to the point that a division championship is a pipe dream. At 4-4 the Bears have to be special to get a wild card spot in the NFC. 49ers 21 Bears 17

New Orleans at St. Louis – You’re kidding right? The old, “Any given Sunday” adage doesn’t apply in this game. The Saints are cruising and the Rams can barely keep from drooling on their shoes. The Rams aren’t winning this game, in fact, it won’t even be remotely close. Saints 40 Rams 7

Tampa Bay at Miami – A return to pewter and a return to losing, at least the Bucs don’t have to travel too far for this loss, and South Beach is nice in November. (Or so I hear) Miami is a solid team despite their 3-5 record. Dolphins 31 Buccaneers 13

Detroit at Minnesota – I’m told there are still Lions fans out there. I say congratulations to you, and you have my pity. It takes a special type of person to live in the Detroit area and put your hope in this bunch. If you’re still a Lions fan in 2009, you don’t have to tell me you’re a die hard. That much is already painfully obvious. I wish I had better news for your hearty souls, but I don’t think Favre and company will get much resistance from the Honolulu Blue Pussycats. Vikings 23 Lions 3

Jacksonville at New York Jets – I can’t think of a single interesting thing to say about this game. Um, hopefully the weather is nice, and Matt Sanchez remembers not to eat a hot dog on the sidelines again. Look, if Jacksonville can’t bother to care about this team, I’m not going to get all worked up about trying to pretend like I care about David Garrard and crew. Although, I like a wide receiver with a hyphen in his name like Mike Sims-Walker; if Sims-Walker has a daughter and Maurice Jones-Drew has a son, and they grow up, fall in love, and get married and have a son. We are looking at the possibility of someone walking the earth with a name this is something like Jamaal Sims-Walker-Jones-Drew. If you don’t think I’m legitimately excited about that prospect, you don’t know me very well. Oh yeah, the game…The Jags stink. Jets 26 Jaguars 10

Buffalo at Tennessee – It has almost been ten years since Frank Wycheck threw an illegal forward pass on a kickoff to Kevin Dyson in the waning moments of the Titans-Bills wildcard playoff game. Yup, The music city miracle turns ten this postseason, and to commemorate the last time the Bills were in the playoffs and got jobbed out of wht should have been a win, just for fun I’m going to pick the exact same score. Only this time it will be a far less exciting game. Titans 22 Bills 16

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – One of the best games of the weekend, and the biggest game for the Bengals since Kimo Von Oelhoffen simultaneously destroyed Carson Palmer’s knee and the Bengal franchise for four years in a playoff game in Cincy in the 2005 postseason. If the Bengals can pull the upset in the Steel City, they put a stranglehold on the AFC North division, as they will have swept away the two other relevant teams in the division. That’ll be tough, as the Steelers have definitely recaptured their swagger after struggling earlier this season. They put quite a licking on the Broncos on Monday Night, and I think they continue to put the hammer down. Even though I have been remarkably impressed with the Bengals so far this season, sweeping the Steelers is a tall order. Oh, and for the record…My official ruling on Chad Ochocinco’s attempt to bribe the reply official with a dollar bill to get the instant replay ruling to go in Cincy’s favor: Hilarious. Steelers 27 Bengals 24

Denver at Washington - There is no shame in falling to either the Ravens or the Steelers, losing a game to the Redskins is another matter altogether. I’m concerned about the Broncos on a two game losing streak. If they fall to the Skins, I’ll be horrified. Broncos 20 Redskins 9

Atlanta at Carolina – This is a huge game for the Panthers, as they are showing signs of adequacy so long as they don’t rely too heavily on the arm of Jake Delhomme. The Falcons are in decent position right now for the playoffs, but this would be a significant win to keep them that way. This might be a sneaky good game down in Carolina. Panthers 23 Falcons 20

Kansas City at Oakland – In this politically correct world we live in, it's probably not appropriate to say that the Raiders and Chiefs are both horrible jokes of football teams, so we'll just say they are Offensively AND Defensively challenged. Seriously though Chiefs, how bad to you have to be to be an underdog to the Raiders? Chiefs 9 Raiders 6

Seattle at Arizona – Last year Arizona couldn't buy a road win, going 2-6 away from rolling grass of University of Phoenix Stadium. This year the Cardinals are road warriors, going undefeated away from home, but stumbling to a 1-3 record at home at the halfway point. So not only are the Cardinals unpredictable from week to week, they are unpredictable from year to year. They walloped the Bears last week, which means they'll probably struggle against the lowly Seahawks this week. Cardinals 21 Seahawks 20

Dallas at Green Bay – Aaron Rodgers seems like a decent quarterback, but his complete inability to throw the ball out of bounds and avoid a sack is a huge detriment. The offensive line for Green Bay is dreadful, and I'm not so sure that this team isn't terrible. Let's just say that I'm off of my preseason prediction of Packers to win it all. They aren't even going to sniff the playoffs. The Cowboys win this rematch of the Ice Bowl easy, I say. Cowboys 29 Packers 13

Philadelphia at San Diego – Norv Turner versus Andy Reid is truly a goofy coaching match up. Norv seems almost entirely incompetent, and Andy Reid vacillates between brilliant and mentally retarded, and he can go back and forth between those two extremes on a minute by minute basis. This should be a pretty interesting game between two clubs who really need the win to keep up in their divisions. The Chargers have a look like they are about to put it together for a second half run, Phil Rivers is despicable, but he has been remarkably clutch. I think San Diego has an excellent chance to make a run at a decent playoff seed, it will be difficult for the Broncos to hold them off. Chargers 24 Eagles 14

New England at Indianapolis – As per usual, the Pats and Colts are hooking up for an important tilt in early November. New England had a couple of hiccups early on in the season, but they appear to be firing on all cylinders at the moment. The Colts have been winning ugly over the past few weeks, but undefeated is undefeated. As usual, this game is must see TV, and the winner will have a huge leg up in the race for top seed in the AFC. The Colts have been living on the edge of late, but I think this week it finally catches up to them. Patriots 31 Colts 27

Baltimore at Cleveland – What a woofer of a Monday Night game. Other than the Browns fans wanting to get revenge for Art Modell picking up stakes and moving to Baltimore and renaming the franchise the Ravens, there is little compelling about this game. And since it will probably be over by midway through the second quarter, there is little intrigue to this game. Ravens 38 Browns 10

My Picks Scorecard:

Last Week: 8-5
Season to Date: 82-47

Avalanche to unveil third jersey Thursday.

So, the Colorado Avalanche are set to unveil their third jersey (read: money maker) on Thursday the 12th. They will wear the new alternates on Saturday November 14th for the first time. Internet speculation (which is usually very reliable...or not) is that the jersey will look like this...





Those aren't too terrible, although that is an awful lot of that bright blue. I dig the stripes on the arms, and I'm always a big fan of the diagonal name on the front. Although, if they were going to go with that, I was always partial to the old third jerseys that looked like this...

Of course, if they really wanted to make an amazing statement with their alt jerseys they could do something like this which would really rock...



Just so long as they don't do what the Montreal Canadiens have done, and break out a monstrosity like these...

So this was ridiculous: Nuggets BARELY win.

It's a good thing that Brad Miller didn't trim his nails before. His made shot for the Bulls with 0.3 seconds remaining in the game when the Bulls were trailing by 1 point was BARELY still in his hands when the light went off, and after about five excruciating minutes of referee discussion...they decided that he didn't get it off in time and the Nuggets won. The Nugs literally won by a fingernail tonight.

Powerlines: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings

It's kind of weird to study a topographical map on a commuter train.

Are the Broncos, 49ers and Giants falling apart? Will the Colts or Saints ever lose? How pathetic are the Rams, Bucs, Browns and Lions? I have no idea, but here is my best attempt to make sense of the NFL this week.

1. Saints – Their trend to let teams walk all over them early is troubling, but their ability to come roaring back is impressive. The Saints almost seem like they are toying with teams at this point. Falling far behind early is going to bite them one of these days, as they won’t always be able to mount the furious comeback, but right now I see no reason to drop them from number one.

2. Colts – The Texans came close to forcing overtime and having a chance to get their first ever win in Indiana, but the Colts lucked out. They remain at the top of the AFC right now, but Pittsburgh, New England and the Bengals are lurking. I’d like to see Indianapolis look a little more overwhelming to keep them this high, but as they are still undefeated, I can’t put them any lower than number two. They’ll get their chance to prove they belong here with a gigantic game against the Patriots this Sunday.

3. Patriots – The Pats are back. Ever since losing a tough game in Denver, New England has looked like the team that ran roughshod over the rest of the league a few years ago. Tom Brady is back to being the super stud quarterback, and the Patriots are back among the elite again. Don’t discount how big of a win they got on Sunday against the Dolphins. That team has been surging lately, and to knock them down when they had to be up to try and get back into the division race was big. My biggest fear is that we could see the Patriots and Yankees both win a championship in the same season. That would be far too much despicable champions at one time…I’m not sure my heart could take it.

4. Steelers – I think people underestimate the Steelers because they don’t play a style of ball that we associate with great teams. They often struggle to run the ball, their quarterback makes things happen, but often it’s because of his grit and ability to stand tough, and they just hang in there and win at the end, even though teams often outplay them for large portions of games. Make no mistake about it, though. This is a great team, and watching them wear down the Broncos and then grind them into the ground in the second half Monday night was depressing for this Denver team. Underestimate Ben Roethlisberger, Troy Polamalu and company at your own risk.

5. Vikings – Brett Favre is bound to collapse, right? I keep waiting to see it, and he keeps playing at an all-pro level. Mix in Favre tossing the ball with the beast that is Adrian Peterson running over guys, and the stout Vikings defense stoning opposing attacks, and you have the final of the five teams that I think can win it all. If the champ this year doesn’t come from the group of Vikings, Patriots, Colts, Saints or Steelers, I’ll be shocked.

6. Bengals – I have been underestimating this team all year, but no longer. They curb stomped the Ravens on Sunday in as big of a domination over a good team as I have seen in the NFL this season. Cincy is good.

7. Cowboys – Another team like New England that has turned their game up a notch after a loss in Denver. Since losing to the Broncos, the Boys have been rampaging through the league. Winning in Philly on Sunday night was gigantic, and now their schedule eases up a bit which could allow them to really put some ground between them and their divisional rivals. Their next three weeks include a game at Green Bay versus a reeling Packers team, then home games with the putrid Redskins and Raiders. Their win streak should extend to seven games, barring a Packer renaissance on Sunday.

8. Cardinals – When they play well, they play REALLY well. They went into Chicago and waylaid the Bears. Not only that, but Ken Whisenhunt had the coaching audio clip of the season on Sunday when he said “"I'd also like to compliment the Bears too because they played hard and they came back ... And the last thing I'll to say is "we didn't let em off the hook."



Good work, Coach W. With that statement invoking the legendary Denny Green rant you have vaulted to the top rung of my favorite NFL coaches along with Mike Tomlin, Mike Singletary, and Josh McDaniels.

And just because it's fun to see Denny Green lose it in a completely incomprehensible rant...


9. Chargers – It pains me to say this, as if I were allowed to punch one NFL quarterback in the face with total impunity my first, second, and third choices would all be Phil Rivers; but Mr. Rivers is really starting to show an Elway like tendency to be able to lead his team on last minute comebacks to win games. He did it in the season opener against the Raiders in Oakland and also on Sunday in a hostile environment in New York. The possibility that the Broncos surrender three game leads in the division for two consecutive years to the Bolts is looking more and more likely.

10. Eagles – Which loss hurts the Eagles more? The indefensible road loss to the Raiders, or the exceptionally painful loss to the Cowboys in Philly? They are only one back in the division, and there is a lot of football left to go, but I have to imagine that the Iggles would like to have mulligans on both games.

11. Ravens – It feels like the Ravens should be better than this, but they are what their record says they are, and their record says they are a .500 team. The schedule maker hasn’t done them any favors as their losses are to Cincy twice, the Patriots, and the Vikings…good teams all, but they need to pull together a solid second half if they want to make they playoffs.

12. Broncos – The NFL is figuring out how to beat Denver, and the secret is to make Kyle Orton try to beat you. Despite a solid start, the fact remains that Kyle just isn’t very good. Cracks in the foundation of Denver’s 6-0 start are beginning to show. This next week is crucial; it is concerning but understandable to lose back to back games to Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but if you lose to the Redskins, that is when it is time to declare a state of emergency. If the Broncos want to return to looking like contenders, they need to figure out what has happened since the bye week and correct it pronto. Right now, they look like pretenders.

13. Giants – Talk about a team that is sliding off of a cliff right now. The Giants have dropped four straight and the sledding doesn’t get easier as their next two are at home against the Falcons and a Thanksgiving matchup with the Broncos in Denver. They need to get their swagger back, as this team is playing with it’s tail between it’s legs right now. They should have won on Sunday against the Chargers, but they played scared and couldn’t punch in the clinching touchdown in the final minutes, and settled for a field goal which gave them a six point lead, and then watched as Phil Rivers marched the Bolts right down the field for the winning score. When you play not to lose, all too often you lose anyway.

14. Falcons – We have had an Michael Turner spotting! After only going over one hundred yards once in the first six games, and only barely with 105 yards in week two versus the Panthers…Turner has gone over 150 in his past two games. In fact, he gained more yards rushing on Sunday than Matty Ice had passing in the Falcons decleating of the toothless Redskins on Sunday.

15. Dolphins – After losing a tough one in Foxborough on Sunday, the Dolphins are probably a bit too far out of the playoff picture to be able to make a run to the postseason, but if you’re a contender you aren’t happy to see the plucky Dolphin squad on your schedule in December.

16. Texans – Matt Schaub is a stellar fantasy quarterback, but I’m not sure he is good enough in real life to get the Texans to the postseason for the first time. Although, If Kris Brown hits a 42 yard field goal at the end of regulation, there was an excellent chance that the Texans could have gone three games over .500 for the first time in franchise history. If Houston was 6-3 right now, I’d like their odds a lot better right now. However, they missed the kick, and now at 5-4 they are in good but not great position for the playoffs.

17. Jets – The Jets are 4-4 halfway through, and they have a shot to make the postseason, but their hopes rest upon a rookie quarterback who has dropped four of his last five games. It’s certainly not impossible, and I think Matt Sanchez has a bright future, but I’m certainly not betting the house on the Jets this year.

18. Bears – The Bears have been blown out twice in the past three weeks and have lost three of their last four games. Their only win in the past month is against the Browns, and lets face it, a group of blind nuns might be a pickem against Cleveland. I’m not sure that the Bears are any good. I imagine that Chicago was hoping for better than 4-4 at the halfway mark when they made the deal for Cutler.

19. Packers – Apart from beating the Bears on opening day, every other win the Packers have is over a terrible team with only one win. On top of not beating anybody, they lost to the creamsicles on Sunday, who were winless at the time. In spite of one of the easiest schedules in the league to this point, the Packers are only at .500 on the year. I can’t prove it yet, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the Packers are terrible.

20. 49ers – It’s high time Mike Singletary did something insane. The Niners have now lost five out of their last six, and they need to be on alert. There is no better way to get them on alert than to have Coach Crazy do something worthy of his nickname.

21. Panthers – This team is the NFC version of the Dolphins…they probably aren’t going to be able to make the postseason due to a dreadful start, but they are a frisky spoiler type team.

22. Titans – Now that they have Brett Kern doing the punting, 10-6 isn’t out of the question. He was 6-0 with the Broncos who are 0-2 since, and the Titans are 2-0 with him after starting out 0-6. I believe in the Kern VooDoo, I do!

23. Jaguars – Explain to me again why we have an NFL team in Jacksonville? The Jaguars beat the Chiefs on Sunday in what was very likely the least watched, least cared about game in NFL history. I can’t prove this, but I’d bet there were more Steelers fans at the game in Denver Monday night than there were Jacksonville Jaguars fans at the Jags home game on Sunday.

24. Bills – Thanks to the plan to outsource their home games to Canada, the Bills only have one game in Buffalo between now and December 19th which is probably not the way to get a middling team into the hunt. Sadly for the fanatical fan base in Western New York, it just doesn’t seem like there is enough money in Buffalo for the Bills to be viable there long term.

25. Seahawks – They finally managed to win a game in which they didn’t shut out their opponent, but this Seattle team feels like your stereotypical non-descript 6-10 team. There is zero buzz about them, and the only interesting thing they’ve done all season to this point is wear neon green.

26. Redskins – Daniel Snyder admitted that he is embarrassed at how the Redskins are being run. That’s a positive step, as he isn’t burying his head in the sand like an ostrich. If you’re Dan Snyder, at this point don’t you just consider selling the team? Is owning the perpetually mediocre Redskins really worth the consternation of having people passionately hate your guts?

27. Raiders – Ah, the comic relief of the NFL. When the high points of your season are: 1. The fact that people find it incomprehensible that you were able to beat a 5-3 team in your own stadium and 2. The fact that the authorities will not be pressing assault and battery charges against your head coach. It’s probably fair to say that things are not going as well as hoped for you thus far. Fun fact: JaMarcus Russell’s best day for total yards passing this season is 224 yards, and he’s only gone over 200 yards twice. How do you spell bust? J-A-M-A-R-C-U-S.

28. Chiefs – This coming Sunday we finally get the rematch in Oakland of the thrilling 13-10 Chiefs-Raiders game from September. How low would the number have to be to make the over seem like a good bet? 20? 19?

29. Buccaneers – Josh Freeman gave this team a spark, and a punt block taken back for a score certainly helped things along. In an era when just about anyone can break out a throwback, it was pretty cool to see Bucco Bruce make an appearance. It’s inconceivable to me that anyone could ever look at that shade of orange and think, “Why, this would make a stellar football uniform! Quick, someone get me 40 bolts of mesh in tangerine-creamsicle orange, we’ve got a football team to outfit!” Ah, the 70’s were a magical time.

30. Browns – Is it possible that Eric Mangini could get fired at the end of this season (certainly that is possible) and then end up with the Oakland Raiders next year where he promptly gets fired halfway through the year and sets a new record of being fired from three NFL head coaching positions in a calendar year and a half? Let’s just say that’s how I’m cheering right now. To say that the Browns look like a Junior High Flag Football team is an affront to Junior High Flag Football.

31. Rams – After beating the Lions 17-10, the Rams went into their bye week on a season high one game winning streak. Chances of stretching that streak to two games when they come back to action against the Saints this Sunday? Lets just say the chances aren’t good and leave it at that. I hate to embarrass the Rams any worse than their exploits on the football field have already done.

32. Lions – Welcome back to the cellar, Detroit. The positive of this season is that you literally have infinitely more wins that you did last year. The negative of the season is that it only took one win to get to that point. The Browns still remain on the schedule, so optimistically you do have an outside chance at two wins this year.