What a waste of a perfectly colored logo!

Why oh why couldn't the Broncos have made this Super Bowl...How good would that Orange and Blue patch look on a Broncos uniform. They'll be meaninglessly contrasting on the Saints and Colts uniforms. Oh well, maybe when the Super Bowl Logo is White and Royal Blue, the Broncos can made the Super Bowl. Then the Colts will know what it feels like to have a Super Bowl logo that is a perfect match for your team but not get to wear it because you didn't actually make the Super Bowl...Oh the revenge will be sweet.

By the way, I still want the Saints to win it all. Even if their uniforms clash with the logo for the game. Go Brees and company!

Broncos Gameday Recap: Game #13 - at Colts

Citizen Watches have the wrong Manning brother endorsing their Echo Drive watch. Eli is not unstoppable, but brother Peyton pretty much is.

Sometimes, you just have to acknowledge that your team is not the better team. I actually take some comfort in that loss. As despite making oodles and oodles of mistakes, the Broncos had a legit shot to win that game in the 4th quarter. The Colts are amazing. They have won 22 straight regular season NFL games, and they've now clinched the number 1 seed in the AFC even though there are still three more games to play. Their quarterback is one of the best if not THE best of all time, and they appear to be on a collision course with the Saints to play in the Super Bowl. (If Super Bowl XLIV is Colts-Saints and they're both undefeated, the sports media may break all known hyperbole records. We're seriously talking about setting records that may never approached ever again.)

The Colts looked invincible for the first 20 minutes of the game running out to a 21-0 lead and burying the Broncos. Indianapolis then looked very beatable for most of the rest of the game as the Broncos rallied to bring it to 21-16, but then Peyton Manning had a predictable seven-minute game icing drive in the 4th quarter, and it was over. If you just look at the stats, Peyton actually had a bad game. He completed only 20 of 42 passes for 220 yards and he had three interceptions. However, stats lie all the time. Yes, from midway through the second quarter, to that last drive in the 4th quarter, Manning looked extremely mortal. He threw all three interceptions during that stretch, and was pretty inaccurate and frustrated during that time. However, he had earned a little slack because he had built up a 21 point lead, and then when the Colts needed him, Peyton won the game for them.

As long as the Colts have Peyton Manning they have a shot.

Peyton is such a stud, the facts are that despite having a pedestrian 65.6 passer rating he was the man. He threw four touchdown passes, iced the game in the clutch, pooped in the refrigerator, and ate a whole wheel of cheese. I'm not even mad at him, that was amazing.

Positives from the game:

What a game for Brandon Marshall, 21 catches! Holy Geez!

Brandon Marshall: Yeah, if you set a new NFL record for most catches in a game, you get 200 receiving yards, and two touchdowns, I'd say that's a positive day. Unfortunately, the rest of the team was not nearly as on fire as Marshall, or the Broncos would have won by 50. I watched the game at my brother's house, and as I was driving back home I heard some idiot talking about how Marshall still isn't doing enough for this team. What, he needs to start walking on water and healing blind men? How much more can one wide receiver do? Brandon earned his paycheck today, well done, sir!

The Broncos Defense: Yes, they quickly gave up three touchdowns to fall behind by 21 points, which is clearly bad, but from that point on the Broncos D was stout. Peyton Manning was buried by the defense into a pile of 3 and outs and deflections bouncing for interceptions. The offense was unable to get much going, and the defense kept bailing them out, but the fact is that the D held the Colts to a sub-par offensive day. (How good is Manning, when a 4 touchdown pass day and winning by 12 points is considered substantially below expectations?)

Dawkins is an animal!

Brian Dawkins: 10 tackles and 2 interceptions off of crazy deflections. The funniest moment of the day was the second Dawkins interception that came when a Peyton Manning pass bounced off of Champ Bailey's face. It was funny and a good play for the Broncos, so it was a great combo for me! Good day for the man who they call Wolverine.

There is just something likable about Kyle Orton, resplendent in all his mediocrity. I dig him.

Kyle Orton: Kyle had a solid day, he was stepping up in the pocket, not panicking, finding recievers...well, finding Brandon Marshall, and apart from one bad toss that was intercepted, generally did a good job playing the type of ball that the Broncos need from him. He isn't a great quarterback, but he was good today, and when Orton is good, the Broncos have a chance.

Negatives from the Game:

The 1st Quarter: Nothing went well for the Broncos in the first 15 minutes. Manning put on a clinic on how to pick apart a defense. The Broncos were down 14-0 when the Broncos took their fourth snap. It looked like the Colts were on their way to winning by 70 based on the first quarter decimation.

The Colts offense was too much for the Broncos.

The Run Defense: Joe Addai and Mike Hart weren't spectacular, but they kept getting important yards, and the Broncos just couldn't get the run game stopped all game. It became critical later on in the game, as the clock just kept running and the Colts had a good offensive balance which helped Manning.

Not Knowshon's greatest performance today.

Knowshon Moreno: Averaging 2.7 yards per carry is not getting it done, not even close. Knowshon had to carry a bigger load that usual, as Correll Buckhalter sprained his ankle in the first quarter. Knowhon showed that he is not ready to carry the load by himself. He didn't fumble, but he looked over-matched today and not one time did he look special.

Short yardage situations: The Broncos went for it on 4th down on three different occasions, and failed each time. Toss in a handful of failed 3rd and short situations where a first down keeps hope alive, and the fact becomes obvious that the Broncos cannot pick up one yard when they really need to. It didn't help that Josh McDaniels kept hammering Knowshon up the middle even though there was nothing happening on those plays. The Broncos need to figure out a way to convert these plays if they want to 1. Make the playoffs and 2. Do something once they get there.

Even if he's often a bonehead, Brandon Marshall is easily the most exciting player on the Broncos. I can't help but cheer for the guy. He's like Doritos, I like him even though I know he's not good for me.

Final Thought:

The Colts are going to finish undefeated unless they stop themselves by not trying over the final three games. The Broncos are a good team that may play a playoff game, but this game showed that they have a way to go if they want to be elite. I wasn't expecting to get a win in Indy, so the fact that they loss is far from surprising and I'm not overly disappointed. The two games they must get are the final two home games against Kansas City and Oakland. As long as they get those two...they should make the playoffs. The game in Philly would just be icing at this point. Beating the Colts is going to require a perfect game, and the Broncos were far from perfect today, but they can take hope that the Colts are beatable. They say that there is no such thing as a moral victory in the NFL, but they are wrong. This was a moral victory for the Broncos.

Bill Belichick's 4th and 2 decision: The Official Vertically Striped position

A little over a year ago, Mike Shanahan, then head coach of the Denver Broncos, made an all or nothing decision which required gaining two yards to either win or lose the game. It was the infamous Ed Hochuli game; The Broncos had just benefited from a horrible referring decision. Denver scored a touchdown on a four yard pass from Jay Cutler to Eddie Royal with twenty-four seconds remaining in the fourth quarter to make the score 38-37 pending the extra point. At this point, Shanahan made a gutsy decision, he kept the offense on the field to go for two to win the game rather than kick the extra point to tie the game up and send it to overtime. The try was successful, as Cutler once again found Royal in the South end-zone of Invesco Field, and the crowd erupted with approval. After the game, Shanahan was universally praised for his gutsiness and unconventional thinking. His defense had been run over, and rather than trust his fate to the coin flip, he decided to put the matter into the hands of his offense. The gamble worked, and Shanny was a genius, or so said the punditry across the sporting universe.

From the ESPN.com recap game page:

Showing ultimate confidence in his offense and maybe an equal dollop of distrust in his defense, Mike Shanahan went for the 2-point conversion with 29 seconds left and Jay Cutler hit rookie Eddie Royal over the middle to give the Denver Broncos a 39-38 win over San Diego on Sunday.

"Sometimes you have to go with your gut," Shanahan said. "I just felt like it was a chance for us to put them away. I didn't want to count on the coin flip. I wanted to do it then, and obviously it worked out."

From a Denver Post article by Mike Klis:

What's a bigger gamble — asking the offense to convert for one play from 2 yards out, or risk asking the defense to stop the Chargers? "At some point you need to ask, what are the percentages?" said Chargers coach Norv Turner. "He made the right call."

Okay, not everyone agreed with it. From Bernie Lincicome of the defunct Rocky Mountain News (Although I consider a Bernie Lincicome objection to be further verification of the correctness of the call):

The Broncos won a football game, one rare and remarkable, and, yes, there was a football game there under all the pinwheels and the panting, even when the Broncos coach made absolutely the wrong choice when it mattered most. And got away with it.

Anyhow, a year ago Shanahan and the Broncos gambled and won, and the community of football generally agreed with the decision because it worked. Also, the media were so busy wringing their hands over the absolutely atrocious Hochuli call of a non-fumble on what was clearly a Jay Cutler fumble which was recovered by San Diego that they only gave half of the attention of that game to the actual winning decision and focused just as much if not more on the one horrendous officiating call. My point is, that from my recollection of that day and it’s aftermath, and verified by my reading up on the archives of what was said that day…people agreed with the call because they had access to the results and the results were positive.

Now, flash forward to a year or so later when Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots decided to gamble on a 4^th and 2 at their own 28 yard line with 2:08 remaining in the game. It’s not completely analogous, but it is close enough to make my point. The Patriots were up by 6, and a successful conversion all but ices the game, however, a failed conversion does not mean that a loss is certain; it just makes it much more probable. So actually, Shanahan took the bigger risk last year and was praised for it because it worked. If Shanahan’s gambit didn’t work, the game was definitely over for the Broncos. The Pats still would have a chance even if they failed.

This week, Belichick is getting crucified because he failed on a play that actually was less risky. Yes, giving Peyton Manning the ball at the 28 with two minutes to go is tough, but it’s not impossible that the defense can keep the Colts out of the end zone. I keep hearing how Belichick was showing how he didn’t believe in his defense, but couldn’t he sell his decision by saying that he was showing faith in both his offense AND defense by going for the jugular? Belichick could say that he believed that his defense could bail him out if the offense failed. Sure, that’s more than a little bit of spin, but logically it makes sense, and Belichick could surely sell that to his players and possibly the media, right?

My initial reaction watching the game was that I thought Belichick was an idiot, but the more I thought about it, the more sense it made. Convert and victory is certain (and to be fair, after watching the replay it sure looked like the spot was an absolute dreadful piece of officiating), however if you fail even then not all hope is gone that you can win the game. Plus, the conventional “safe” play involved punting the ball to Peyton Manning. If Patriots punter Chris Hanson hits his average punt, which is 39.6 yards, you’re somewhere around the 32 or 33 yard line with Manning needing to go sixty-seven yards to win with two minutes to play with and two timeouts. Sure, that’s a good deal harder than going 28 yards, but either way, it’s far from unlikely that Peyton doesn’t do it. So rather than just giving Manning the ball, Bill tried to take all the suspense out the outcome by taking a reasonable chance at trying to get 2 yards with Tom Brady for the win rather than leaving it up to a defense that had already surrendered two fourth quarter touchdowns.

Yes, it was a risk, and I understand the side which says that they would punt, however, I think punting would have been just as large of a risk without the potential to decide the game in your favor. To hear pundits denigrating Belichick saying he is a complete moron and made an absolutely brain-dead decision because of his hubris seems disingenuous as many of these same folks praised Shanahan a year ago for making a similar decision with even more stark consequences for failure. At worst, when you factor in the positives for a successful conversion versus the negatives for a failure, Belichick’s decision was a coin flip where it was equally risky either way. Punting is what traditionalists do without thinking or without factoring in probabilities. I think Bill made an informed decision and decided to be risky because he felt it gave his team the best mathematical chance to win the game. I’m not going to kill him for that, even if I probably would have punted myself. In fact, I salute him as a visionary who rejects conventional thinking. If you’re only doing something because “That’s the way we’ve always done it” and you aren’t factoring in anything else other than tradition, you’re not thinking.

Sure, anyone with access to the results afterwards can make a more informed decision because hindsight is always 20-20, but in the moment, I don’t think that was a bad call. It only had a bad result, and everyone loves to judge decisions retroactively based on results. The Patriots didn’t have access to the results, and made a decent decision based on probability. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to take a shower. All this defending Bill Belichick and the hated Patriots is making me feel dirty!