Ah, Championship Weekend. One of the best weekends for football that there is. For my money, this is the worst possible week to lose in the NFL. It's worse than losing the Super Bowl if you peter out in the Final 4. Because when you lose in this round you're an almost but not quite Super team and that hurts. Here are my best guesses for this weekend, and if you want to make some serious money, you should probably go place bets on the Steelers and Bears, because I'm a dreadful 2-6 thus far in the playoffs. Undaunted...I keep trying. Here my best guess, take it for what it is...
Jets at Steelers – This game reminds me so much of 2005-06’s AFC Championship game. The Broncos had defeated the two-time defending champ Patriots on Saturday night, and were looking at having to travel to Indianapolis most likely, as the powerhouse Colts were facing the sixth seed Steelers, and everyone and their brother thought the Colts would win. However, the Steelers surprised the top-seed Indy, and now Broncos fans were feeling pretty confident because all we had to do was take down the six seed in our home stadium and we were heading to the Super Bowl. Well, the Jets feel an awful lot like that Steelers team from January 2006 and the Steelers feel like my Broncos. I really feel like Pittsburgh should win this game, but something tells me the Jets are going to find a way.
The Steelers offensive line is in shambles, and their secondary was good but not great against the Ravens. Troy Polamalu can be such a difference maker when completely healthy, but he seemed completely average last week coming back from injury, and I’m not sure he’s healthy enough to be his usual crazed lunatic wild man roaming the secondary with a vengeance. Meanwhile, the Jets offense is clicking, and the defense just completely shut down the Pats last week. The thing that makes me wary about picking the Jets is the fact that it requires placing my faith in Mark Sanchez on the road, but then in the past two weeks he has outplayed Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, so why not add the head of Ben Roethlisberger to his wall too? Chances are great that the Steelers will be up by 17 halfway through the second quarter, and I’ll look foolish yet again in a postseason pick, but make mine Jets in a decent, but not great game. Jets 33 Steelers 24
Packers at Bears – This is the oldest rivalry in the NFL, and yet this is only the second ever meeting between the two franchises in the postseason, the first came in 1941 with the Bears winning 33-14 in what was basically the first playoff game in NFL history. Oddly, these two historical powerhouses have only made the playoffs in the same year four times in history. (1941, 1994, 2001 and this year)
This will be the rubber match game this season, as the Bears won 20-17 back in September on a Monday Night game that inspired a Vertically Striped Radio show (Episode 75) to take place. Then the Packers punched their ticket to the Playoffs in the final week with a 10-3 victory in Wisconsin in a game that had zero effect on the Bears situation. Now, we are faced with what very well could be the biggest game in the history of the rivalry. Scratch that, in what is DEFINITELY the biggest game in the history of the rivalry.
The Bears were the second seed in the NFC, and yet still no one believes in them. It's odd that the 2 seed playing at home is a three and a half point underdog to the six seed coming in, but that is where we find ourselves. As I look at the Bears record from the year, I see they went 11-5, which is solid, but only a game better than their rivals to the North who were struggling with injuries for a large portion of the year. During the regular season, I didn't think the Packers would be able to win without a running game. However, James Starks has come from nowhere to provide an adequate rushing attack and Aaron Rodgers has made like Frampton and come alive. Watching the way he carved up the Falcons defense last week, and knowing that the Packers defense has been very good over the past month, I have a hard time seeing the Bears being able to overcome Green Bay.
If Chicago is going to do it, they'll need to slow down Rodgers, make the Packers one-dimensional like they were mid-season, get the momentum of a home crowd that despises the opponent rocking, and hope that Jay Cutler doesn't make a Jay Cutler-like decision in a critical moment. Their defense has given the Packers fits, even in the season finale when the game meant nothing to Chicago and everything to the Pack, so it's not inconceivable that Chicago could make a run, but I keep coming back to Rodgers vs. Cutler...and I keep feeling like it's meant to be Green Bay's year. Packers 27 Bears 21
Divisional Round: 1-3 Regular Season: 161-95 Playoffs: 2-6 Year to Date: 163-101
The ultimate battle of good versus evil, only evil is now completely and totally inept.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville – For the love of all things holy, the Colts better not play all their scrubs and act like this game doesn’t mean anything. They have a chance to be the first ever 19-0 team, and to give up that chance would be criminal. Not to mention that if they lie down and allow the Jaguars to win, we are that much closer to the Jaguars making the playoffs…which is unacceptable. I’m counting on Jim Caldwell to do the right thing here: Go for the throat and a chance at immortality! Colts 31 Jaguars 17
Dallas at New Orleans – The Saints have been living on the edge the past few weeks and are ripe for a Saturday Night upset, but fortunately for them they are facing a team that is suffering a massive crisis of confidence as they appear to be sliding down their usual December chute of ineptitude. Plus this is a night game in the bayou, Saints roll. Saints 35 Cowboys 13
Atlanta at New York Jets – This game is more important for the Jet Set than the Dirty Birds. The Falcons are questionable enough even without having Matt Ryan and Michael Turner officially listed that way on the injury list. Chris Redman has looked surprisingly effective filling in for Matty Ice, but there is too many things pointing against Atlanta. Jets 20 Falcons 13
San Francisco at Philadelphia – Lost in the hoopla of the national media saying that the Eagles are back and a team to be reckoned with is the fact that they gave up 38 points and over 500 yards of offense to the Giants in that win. Sure, they scored 45 points, but at some point during a championship run you have to stop somebody, right? Well, if you want to get better at stopping people, the 49ers are probably a good team to play against. They aren’t exactly exploding with offensive threats. Eagles 30 49ers 21
The Swine Flu, not the sole reason that the Rams are terrible.
Houston at Saint Louis – The Rams dumped Guard Richie Incognito this week as a result of his head butting ways which he showcased yet again in the loss to the Titans last week. The Bills promptly picked up Incognito which shot holes in my theory that other than Steven Jackson, no one would want to pick up any member of the Rams. Apparently the Rams cancelled practice today, the official reason given was that it was due to an outbreak of Swine Flu on the team, but I think the real reason practice was cancelled was due to general lack of interest. Texans 34 Rams 7
New England at Buffalo – The Patriots are getting dragged through the mud as a bunch of underachievers and a team that is past it’s prime and looking for a soft place to fall. I think reports their demise may be a bit over exaggerated, as I have a hard time seeing them missing the playoffs to a team like the Jets or the Dolphins, and they should slaughter a middling Bills team no matter where the game is played. Randy Moss may have starting acting like Randy Moss and quitting on plays, but there is still enough talent in New England to get them to the playoffs. It may be a short visit to the postseason, but they’ll be there, and they’ll definitely show up enough to put away the Bills. Patriots 23 Bills 13
Chicago at Baltimore – The Ravens are the team I predict will be flying high by the time they reach the playoffs, I have them running the table and rising all the way to the 5th seed in the AFC where they will put the Patriots out of there misery before finally having their season end either in Indianapolis or San Diego. The Bears are not bound for such glory, as they are probably going to finish 6-10. I’m guessing no one will commission a large statue of Jay Cutler in Chicago this offseason. I don’t see this game being very competitive. Ravens 29 Bears 13
Miami at Tennessee – This is a pretty good game, the Dolphins have a shot at the playoffs, but they really need this one. The Titans have a tiny shot, but if it’s going to happen they absolutely MUST win this game. Both of these teams are pretty hot right now, and even though I don’t think either will make the postseason, this may be the most competitive game of the week. Titans 19 Dolphins 16
Cleveland at Kansas City – This is the worst game of the week, and possibly the worst game of the year. What I want to do is predict a 0-0 tie as neither team deserves to win or to even score in this game. I’m not going to pick a tie, but I do think I’ll predict an epically bad field goal battle. Chiefs 9 Browns 6
Arizona at Detroit – The Cardinals lost a horrible game in San Francisco on Monday night. However, they only lost 24-9 despite turning the ball over 7 times. No team is going to win a game in which they turn over the ball seven times, and only losing by 15 in that scenario is not overly terrible. The Lions are flat out bad, and Arizona is due to get back on track. Cardinals 27 Lions 17
While they once were mighty, pretty much the Raiders now stink.
Oakland at Denver – The Broncos played admirably against the Colts in Indianapolis last week, and they now come home to face a terrible team starting a third string quarterback. Last year the Raiders came into Denver as a huge underdog and thumped the Broncos 31-10, that is not happening again. This Raiders team is not good enough to beat the Broncos on Sunday, I firmly believe the Broncos will win big. In fact, let’s just use that same score from last season in reverse. Broncos 31 Raiders 10
Cincinnati at San Diego – The Bengals offense is just not good enough for me to take them seriously as a major contender in the AFC. It will be interesting to see what the impact of the sudden death of teammate Chris Henry will have on Cincy as these types of things can sometimes energize teams. However, I don’t know if that will be enough to get the Bengals over the hump against a really good San Diego team. The Chargers are good enough to win the whole thing, and they haven’t lost in December in a long time. They’ll take care of business against Cincy and all but wrap up the 2nd seed in the process. Chargers 33 Bengals 19
Green Bay at Pittsburgh – The defending champs are all but finished for the season, they’ve lost five straight games, and I’ll be greatly surprised if it isn’t six in a row by the time Sunday’s game with the Packers is over. Green Bay is surging and look ready to roll into the postseason, a matchup in December in Pittsburgh looked like a heck of a game back in October, but now it looks more like a dud. I’m guessing the Steelers actually make a decent game out of this one, but I think they lose in the end. Packers 24 Steelers 21
Tampa Bay at Seattle – The Seahawks are not a good team at all, but they occasionally explode and destroy really bad teams when they are playing at home. Tampa definitely qualifies as a really bad team, and I think the Hawks get their last win of the season in blowout fashion once again Seahawks 31 Buccaneers 3
Minnesota at Carolina – This feels like the kind of game that the Vikes don’t really need and that Carolina will be playing as if it were their Super Bowl. Brett Favre has played one bad game in December, so why not one more? In a bit of a surprise I’ll take Carolina. Panthers 26 Vikings 23
New York Giants at Washington – The Redskins are bad, but they can be frisky. The Giants have definitely cooled since their fast start, and now desperately need wins to have a shot at the playoffs. I think the G-men win this one out of necessity and the Redskins lose as Jim Zorn plays out the string until his inevitable firing that will occur the day after the season ends. Giants 28 Redskins 24
My Picks Scorecard:
Last Week: 12-4 Season to Date: 134-74
Playoff Preview: Here are my projections for the NFL playoff seedings. Only one change this week in the playoff projections, I now have the Eagles in the 3 slot in the NFC and the Cardinals in the 4 slot. The AFC remains unchanged.
The Eagles and Giants will face off in a huge NFC East battle.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland – This is the very definition of a must win game for the Steelers. After dropping four games in a row, two of which were against relative doormats in Oakland and Kansas City, the Steelers are in complete desperation mode. Fortunately for Pittsburgh, they get to play one of the most inept franchises in the league on Thursday night. I expect the Steelers to end their slide, because every team in the league should beat the Browns. The Steelers have a rough finish to the season with the Packers, Ravens and Dolphins, so this is their last gimmie on the schedule, and they MUST win it. I think the Steelers are done for this season, but they still have enough to take care of a steaming pile that is Cleveland. Steelers 27 Browns 10
New Orleans at Atlanta – The Saints say that they are going to keep their foot on the gas and try to pull off 16-0. I applaud that, and think it’s the right move, but I believe they should focus more on 19-0. A perfect regular season has been done, it’s more important to get those last three games. The Saints survived a game last week that by every right they should have lost, so perhaps regular season perfection is within their grasp. The Falcons have fallen off, and I don’t think they’ll be able to get it done regardless if it’s Matt Ryan or Chris Redman playing quarterback on Sunday. The Saints still have a few games I worry about them losing…with the Cowboys and the Panthers…but I think New Orleans has more than enough to take care of the slumping Falcons. Saints 38 Falcons 27
Green Bay at Chicago – The Pack is peaking, and the Bears are more dreadful than most people are ready to acknowledge. However, this is one of those rivalry games where sometimes the lesser team is able to rise up just due to that little extra edge that comes from familiarity and dislike. I don’t see that being an issue in this game, though, because I think the Bears are finished, and the Packers really need to keep winning to secure a postseason bid. I imagine the season can’t finish soon enough for Jay Cutler. Packers 23 Bears 13
New York Jets at Tampa Bay – The Buccaneers had a winning record last season. The house was cleaned during the offseason, or perhaps the more apt analogy is that it was burned to the ground. Hard to believe that this team was competitive one year ago, as the talent level is very low now and new Head Coach Raheem Morris hasn’t had them showing many signs of improvement. The Jets have an outside shot at a playoff spot after winning their past two games to pull even at 6-6. I don’t think they’ll be able to win enough over the final month to make the playoffs, but they should be able to take care of the Bucs. Jets 20 Buccaneers 10
Miami at Jacksonville – This game is pretty close to an elimination game for playoff contention. The Jaguars start their three game losing skid this weekend, as they are not a worthy playoff contender which will be shown over the final month. I don’t think the Dolphins get there either, but they’re better than the Jags. Dolphins 19 Jaguars 16
Detroit at Baltimore – As long as I’m predicting the final month for the Jags, I may as well do it for the Ravens too. Baltimore is about to start a four game win streak by taking care of the Lions. Ravens 33 Lions 24
Seattle at Houston – This game is mostly meaningless unless you’re a diehard Seahawks fan, or you’re a member of the Kubiak family. It sure feels like Gary Kubiak needs a solid finish to avoid losing his head coaching job. Not much of a reason to watch this one, other than if you’ve got fantasy players involved. Texans 28 Seahawks 17
Denver at Indianapolis – For the second straight week the Broncos travel to a town that has not treated them very well over the years. Last week, they were able to overcome the ghosts of Arrowhead and put a hurting on the Chiefs, this week they travel to Indy to play a Colts team that hasn’t lost a regular season game since before the McCain-Obama presidential election. 21 straight regular season games, and after Sunday it’ll be 22. I’d love to see the Broncos make a statement that they are for real and they need to be taken seriously as a contender. They could make that statement with a win, but it’s a very tall task for a team that has generally been road-kill in Indy over the past decade. Colts 34 Broncos 17
Buffalo at Kansas City – Watching the Chiefs get waxed by the Broncos on Sunday made me think that the only team they could maybe lose to this KC squad would be the Browns. The Bills are pretty dreadful, but they are better than the Chiefs, and I expect that to play out of the field in Kansas City on Sunday. Bills 17 Chiefs 10
Rocky singlehandedly ended the cold war, all the Bengals are trying to do is beat the Vikings!
Cincinnati at Minnesota – After seeing Brett Favre finally look mortal for the first time this season on Sunday Night in Arizona, the thing that instantly popped to mind was the scene from Rocky IV when Duke yells of Drago, “You see? You see? He's not a machine, he's a man, he's a man.” The Cardinals cut the Minnesota Dragos, I’m not sure how much “Rocky” the Bengals have in them, but I guess what I'm trying to say, is that if the Bengals can change, and Cincinnati can change, everybody can change! Bengals 24 Vikings 20
Carolina at New England – The Patriots may be vulnerable on the road, but they’ve been dynamite in Foxborough. After absorbing two painful losses in Miami and New Orleans, I feel like the Patriots are out to prove that the rumors of their demise have been slightly exaggerated. I don’t think they score enough to cover a two touchdown spread, but I think they’ll be able to handle the Panthers in this Super Bowl 38 rematch. Patriots 23 Panthers 13
Washington at Oakland – This game is another Super Bowl rematch, this one from Super Bowl 18. The stakes are much lower this time, as both of these clubs are no where near their former glory. Although the Raiders would like to put together two straight wins after their biggest win in years taking down the Super Bowl champs in Pittsburgh last week. The Redskins almost pulled off a doozy of an upset themselves by somehow not defeating the Saints last week despite giving every indication that they could and would. I have absolutely no feel for how either of these two teams are going to perform a week after their most significant games of the season, although for some reason, I feel like it’s going to be a good game. The quarterback matchup of Bruce Gradkowski and Jason Campbell is far from an exciting, but both signalcallers have been playing very well of late. This one feels to me like an overtime game, and I’ll give a slight nod to the home team. Raiders 20 Redskins 17 (in OT)
Saint Louis at Tennessee – Our third straight former Super Bowl matchup is on tap in Tennessee. This was one heck of an exciting Super Bowl back in January of 2000, but Titans vs. Rams doesn’t hold quite the same intrigue in 2009. Although both teams started this year playing dreadfully, Tennessee has pulled out of the tailspin, and the Rams have basically crashed into the ground. The Titans were in too deep a hole to make a playoff run, but they are playing some very good football right now and should handle the Rams easily. Titans 31 Rams 14
San Diego at Dallas – This to me is the most interesting matchup of the weekend. The Cowboys had been playing well up until the point where they fell to the Giants last week. The Chargers have been playing well over the past two months, and are trying to hold off a late charge from the Broncos. The Chargers are one of the best teams in the league, and I feel like the Cowboys are on the verge of yet another late season collapse. Now comes word that Tony Romo is going to be taking over place-holding duties. Is that really a good idea? Putting your starting quarterback back into a position where he had his most public and massive failure at the dawn of a month when traditionally he has struggled mightily seems like bad Karma…you know, if I believed in Karma, that is. Chargers 30 Cowboys 17
Philadelphia at New York Giants – Another big important game, I think the winner of this game will win the NFC East. Philly seems to be raising their game just as the playoffs are coming near. I like them to take care of business and take hold of the NFC East with a win in the Meadowlands. Eagles 27 Giants 24
Arizona at San Francisco – It’s the matchup so boring that the NFL outsourced it to Mexico a few years ago. The Cardinals look to be a legit team, and the 49ers do not. What a dreadful Monday Night game this is. I think Arizona takes this one easily. Cardinals 30 49ers 20
My Picks Scorecard:
Last Week: 8-8 Season to Date: 122-70
Playoff Preview: Here are my projections for the NFL playoff seedings.
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When the Denver Broncos began in 1960 their notoriously cheap owner bought used uniforms that were previously used in the Copper Bowl. These rather unsightly uniforms had vertically striped socks, as pictured above. They were uniformly hated at the time, but in retrospect I find them endearingly ugly. Therefore I named the blog Vertically Striped Socks.
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